can it reach $4 despite looming risks?

SUI has soared 196% year-over-year to a 2-month high of $3.71.
$265M worth of SUI will unlock on May 1, introducing potential sell pressure.
Solid DeFi metrics and liquidity may, however, propel SUI toward $4.

SUI price has soared 196% over the past year, hitting a two-month high of $3.71 according to CoinGecko data.

This rally has coincided with a breakout from a falling wedge a week ago and the recent break out above the $3.60 resistance zone, which set the stage for further gains.

Why is the SUI price rising today?

The SUI price surge has been fueled by a mix of strengthening on-chain metrics, a rebound of meme coin activity, and renewed investor optimism.

Over the past week, SUI has seen trading volumes exceed $3.6 billion and $11 billion in monthly volume as traders flock to the protocol amid a meme coin frenzy, especially on the protocol.

In addition, total value locked (TVL) on Sui-based protocols has climbed 40% in April to reach $2.217 billion, highlighting growing confidence in its DeFi ecosystem.

Notably, SUI’s breakout above the key resistance zone around $3.60 has triggered fresh buying interest that propelled prices toward $3.71.

A series of bullish signals across major technical indicators, including a positive MACD and universally bullish moving averages, have reinforced the uptrend.

However, the relative strength index reading of 78.80 signals overbought conditions that could precede a short pause, but momentum indicators remain firmly in buyers’ favour.

Investors have been drawn in by Sui’s expanding ecosystem metrics, with stablecoin market cap surging from $630 million to $880 million in recent weeks.

On the derivatives front, SUI futures open interest has risen by 3.75% to $1.54 billion, reflecting growing institutional engagement.

Long/short ratios near neutrality on a 24-hour basis and a slight bullish tilt among top Binance traders indicate balanced but optimistic sentiment.

The recent two-week rally of over 65% underscores the accelerating pace of accumulation among both retail and institutional investors.

Also, the daily decentralised exchange volumes hovering around $500 million have provided the liquidity backbone for the rally to sustain itself.

Analysts note that Sui’s market capitalisation of $12 billion positions it as one of the top 15 layer-1 blockchains by value, attracting significant scrutiny.

$265M SUI tokens set to unlock this week

On May 1, approximately 74 million SUI tokens worth $265 million—representing 2.28% of the circulating supply—are scheduled to unlock.

With only a third of the total token supply currently in circulation, the fresh influx of tokens could introduce notable selling pressure.

Historical patterns show that large-scale token unlocks often coincide with brief volatility spikes before markets realign to underlying growth metrics.

Notably, huge token unlocks often coincide with temporary price retracements as early holders seek to realise gains.

However, Sui’s robust on-chain fundamentals and deep liquidity suggest the network may absorb the additional supply without a significant downturn.

If buyers maintain control above the $3.60 support level, SUI could chart a path toward the $4 psychologically important milestone.

A seamless absorption of the unlocked tokens may see the price fluctuate between $3.30 and $3.60 before establishing a new upward trend.

Conversely, a spike in sell orders could drive SUI back toward its initial support at $3.30 or even retest the 10-day exponential moving average near $3.00.

Analysts point to rising total value locked and active DeFi participation as key buffers against distribution-induced volatility.

The recent derivative metrics, including a futures volume of $6.04 billion, also reflect deep market liquidity that can help cushion abrupt supply shocks.

I addition, the long/short positioning among retail and institutional accounts remains skewed modestly toward longs, signaling that many investors are braced for further gains.

Sui’s network utility is further underscored by daily DEX volumes that rival many more established chains, highlighting its rising role in decentralised finance.

Ultimately, the success of SUI’s push to $4 will hinge on sustained demand and the community’s confidence in the protocol’s development roadmap.